Insight
UK election: will a Labour landslide trigger a North Sea investment drought?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The Labour Party appears likely to form the next UK government, and in its election manifesto, proposes changes to the Energy Profits Levy (EPL). As we've long stated, the EPL is seriously flawed and should be replaced. But since Labour appears committed to retaining it, if the 4 July election goes in its favour, Labour must face the consequences of the EPL’s fundamental problems. Post-election, companies will seek policy clarity and assurances there will be no further fiscal changes in the forthcoming parliament. But there will be no bankable assurances on what comes thereafter; which will continue to weigh on near-term investment decisions.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Manifesto commitments
- Possible post-election outcomes
- The operational impact
- Impact on cash flows and remaining value
- The EPL’s conundrums
- UKCS investment climate and the impact on trust
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Manifesto commitments
- Change in remaining reserves versus a Pre EPL scenario (1 Jan 2025)
- Government and company cash flows (2025-2029)
- Share of remaining value between Government and Companies
- Share of capex and production in EPL window by project status
What's included
This report contains:
