Insight
Oil price crash: what supply might be shut in?
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
How low can the price go before different sources of production become uneconomic? Where are production shut-ins most likely? Can governments influence the result? Using our Lens database, we calculated global short run marginal costs (SRMC – operating costs + taxes and royalties) for current production, at the asset level. At a Brent price of US$35/bbl, revenue from 4 million b/d (4%) of global liquids supply does not cover production costs and government share. This rises to 10 million b/d (9%) if prices fall to US$25/bbl.
Table of contents
- Resource theme differentiation is dramatic
-
Shut-ins are usually a last resort
- Downward pressure on operating costs
- Direct impact of the coronavirus outbreak
- Saudi Arabia
- Russia
- The United States
- Other producing countries
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Price sensitivity for core resource themes
- Countries with production most at risk
- Saudi, Russia and US SRMC curves
- Top 20 producers and their SRMCs
- Saudi, Russia, US oil revenue dependence
- Price-sensitivity of the Russian Government’s share of oil revenue
What's included
This report contains:
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