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Country Report 06 November 2018

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Global supply growth remains robust, with 2018 and 2019 revised up, and 2020 revised down slightly. Global liquids supply is forecast to grow 2.2 million b/d in 2018, 1.6 million b/d in 2019 and 1.4 million b/d in 2020. Supply in Q4 2018 is being bolstered by substantial increases in Russia and Saudi Arabia, as compliance to production cuts eases in a bid to alleviate market concerns over perceived tightness in the market. In addition to these volumes, Libyan production has rebounded in recent weeks, surpassing one million b/d. US L48 supply has also been upgraded thanks to the announcement that EPIC's NGL pipeline in the Permian will be converted to a crude oil pipeline initially, with a start-up date targeting Q3 2019.

Executive summary
- Global supply: fourth quarter supply boost as Iran sanctions begin
- US Lower 48: easing bottlenecks as EPIC to temporarily convert NGL pipeline to carry crude oil
- OPEC: Iran sanctions took effect on 5 November
- Iran: exports plunge as sanctions re-imposed
- Libya: short term stability leads to increased output, but risks remain