Global upstream oil supply summary - June 2018

The oil supply summary monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2019. The written document is accompanied by a related excel data download. Our forecast for strong liquids supply growth through 2019 remains broadly intact, despite a significant downgrade to Iran due to the re-implementation of US sanctions. Year-on-year global liquids growth of 2.3 million b/d is expected in 2018, along with a further 1.7 million b/d of growth in 2019. The US continues to be the key growth engine, contributing 2.1 million b/d of this increase in 2018, 94% of the global total. This far outweighs the decline in OPEC liquids supply, which averages 0.4 million b/d in 2018, led by Venezuela, Iran and Angola. In this monthly we focus on the downgrade to Iran, due to the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and two potential alternative scenarios for OPEC supply in the wake of the 22 June OPEC meeting.