Country Report
Global oil supply short-term update - July 2024
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply. The written document is accompanied by a slide deck and related excel data download. We expect a significant tightening of the market in Q3 2024 as OPEC+ continue production restraint. However, there will be a need for additional OPEC+ supply from Q4 this year, which is in line with the groups signalled intention to slowly increase output from October. In this update, changes to our forecast are relatively minor but we have extended our short-term forecast through 2026. We forecast that non-OPEC liquids supply will grow steadily and assume OPEC+ will continue to constrain production in order to support a balanced market.
Table of contents
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Global Supply: market poised for the impact of the rollover of OPEC+ cuts through Q3 2024
- Non-OPEC supply: downgrades to Brazil offset by upgrades to US NGLs in 2024
- US Lower 48 annual oil production forecast to surpass 11 million b/d in 2025
- OPEC: key producers likely to continue production constraint through 2026
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