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Country Report 07 February 2019

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Report summary

The global oil supply monthly report provides analysis on short-term global oil supply through 2020. After adding 2.5 million b/d in 2018, global supply growth is forecast to slow in 2019 to 1.2 million b/d. A multitude of factors converge to reduce supplies: Venezuela and Iran sanctions, outages in Libya and Canada, and OPEC+ production cuts. Our base case assumes OPEC+ production restraint through 2019 and 2020 and that Iranian sanctions remain in place through the forecast period. Whilst we covered a number of supply risks for 2019 in this insight, this month, the uppermost uncertainty is the ongoing political crisis in Venezuela. US sanctions targeting PdVSA will lead to a further fall in production by Q2 2019. After production stabilised at the end of 2018, crude oil production in 2019 is expected fall 400,000 b/d year-on-year. Overall, we have downgraded our 2019 supply outlook by 400,000 b/d while our 2020 outlook is 60,000 b/d higher.

Executive summary
- Global supply: growth slows in 2019 due to sanctions and OPEC+ restraint
- OPEC: Uncertainty in Venezuela and expected production restraint drive lower outlook
  - Venezuela in focus: US sanctions put squeeze on output
    - Will the cutback in heavy barrels affect prices?
  - Iran: Sanctions take effect though waivers limit impact
  - Libya: El Sharara continues to be shut in
- Non-OPEC supply:
  - Lower 48 crude outlook