Global oil supply long-term outlook H1 2019
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Why buy this report?
- Get our latest oil supply forecasts out to 2040, and our assessment of the key risks to these forecasts
- Understand the themes that will shape global oil supply in the short, medium and long term
- Learn how we expect geopolitical tensions to affect the oil market
What are the key takeaways from our latest report?
- Non-OPEC supply growth plateaus at 66 million b/d from 2024, an increase of 8 million b/d from 2018
- Strong upward revisions are dominated by the US Lower 48; but supported by upgrades to mature producers such as China and Norway, and emerging entrants including Guyana
- US Lower 48 crude and condensate peaks at 13.3 million b/d in 2024; Permian remains the key focus of activity
- OPEC crude oil capacity increases steadily through the forecast period, from 35 million b/d in 2018 to 38 million b/d in the early 2030s.
Purchase our report to access a complete set of datasets and charts, including this one, tracking year-by-year changes in supply for OPEC and non-OPEC regions to 2040. Scroll down for the full table of contents.
Report summary
Table of contents
- Global Supply
-
OPEC: long term capacity growth despite production cuts and Iran sanctions losses
- Capacity additions in Iran deferred as sanctions waivers end
- Iraq main focus for OPEC capacity additions, but risks emerging as Middle East tensions rise
- Venezuela: deteriorating operating conditions and US sanctions take toll of supply
-
Non-OPEC: near term growth transitions to stability longer term
- US Lower 48 in focus: core inventory continues to be limiting factor
- Long-term cost curve comes down
- The Majors in the Permian
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Latin America in focus: key non-OPEC growth area outside of North America
- Brazil – a tale of two basins
- Guyana is the new kid on the block
- Longer term exploration is crucial to maintain growth in the region
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Year-on-year change in supply
- US Lower 48 crude and condensate production outlook
What's included
This report contains:
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