Insight
Global oil supply long-term outlook H1 2019
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Why buy this report?
- Get our latest oil supply forecasts out to 2040, and our assessment of the key risks to these forecasts
- Understand the themes that will shape global oil supply in the short, medium and long term
- Learn how we expect geopolitical tensions to affect the oil market
What are the key takeaways from our latest report?
- Non-OPEC supply growth plateaus at 66 million b/d from 2024, an increase of 8 million b/d from 2018
- Strong upward revisions are dominated by the US Lower 48; but supported by upgrades to mature producers such as China and Norway, and emerging entrants including Guyana
- US Lower 48 crude and condensate peaks at 13.3 million b/d in 2024; Permian remains the key focus of activity
- OPEC crude oil capacity increases steadily through the forecast period, from 35 million b/d in 2018 to 38 million b/d in the early 2030s.
Purchase our report to access a complete set of datasets and charts, including this one, tracking year-by-year changes in supply for OPEC and non-OPEC regions to 2040. Scroll down for the full table of contents.
Report summary
Global liquids production capacity shows strong increases through the medium term, reaching a plateau of 116 million b/d from 2030. Whilst the shape of the supply outlook is similar to our H2 2018 outlook, volumes are now bigger. Non-OPEC production in particular dominates the increases: on average upgraded by 2.5 million b/d across the period. A more bullish outlook for the US Lower 48 is supported by upgrades to China, Norway and Guyana, amongst others. Perhaps more telling is the lack of any major downgrades to non-OPEC countries as producers emerge from the price downturn stronger. Companies are transitioning to growth mode and investment is returning, although capital discipline remains front of mind.
Table of contents
- Global Supply
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OPEC: long term capacity growth despite production cuts and Iran sanctions losses
- Capacity additions in Iran deferred as sanctions waivers end
- Iraq main focus for OPEC capacity additions, but risks emerging as Middle East tensions rise
- Venezuela: deteriorating operating conditions and US sanctions take toll of supply
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Non-OPEC: near term growth transitions to stability longer term
- US Lower 48 in focus: core inventory continues to be limiting factor
- Long-term cost curve comes down
- The Majors in the Permian
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Latin America in focus: key non-OPEC growth area outside of North America
- Brazil – a tale of two basins
- Guyana is the new kid on the block
- Longer term exploration is crucial to maintain growth in the region
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Year-on-year change in supply
- US Lower 48 crude and condensate production outlook
What's included
This report contains:
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