Are we all scrubbed up and ready to go? Updated analysis of the IMO 2020 marine fuel sulphur changes

It’s not long until the IMO 2020 fuel regulation changes come into force on 1 January 2020.

Get our latest IMO 2020 insight for the most up to date information on the impacts of the marine fuel sulphur changes.

Key developments in this report include:

• Our latest forecasts for bunker fuel prices and crude differentials, consistent with our H1 2019 Brent price forecasts
• More detailed analysis of availability and quality of VLSFO by region, and updated numbers for the consumption of scrubbed HSFO
• Additional work on the impact of the IMO regulations on the evolution of the global crude slate, refinery investments and upgrading capacity.

Table of Contents

1. Current market for marine fuels
2. Implementation of the IMO global sulphur limit
3. Options for regulatory compliance
4. Outlook for global marine fuel demand
5. Resolving the imbalances
6. Impact on fuel prices, refining margins and crude differentials
7. Implications from the “full compliance” scenario
8. Summary

Tables and Charts

This report includes 33 tables and charts, including:

1. Global marine fuel market by type, 2000 – 2018
2. Share of global marine fuels by fuel type, 2018
3. Regional growth in marine fuels, 2000 – 2018
4. Share of global marine fuels by region, 2018
5. Timeline for enforcement of MARPOL Annex VI SOx emission limits
6. Assumed regulatory compliance by region, 2020