Europe energy prices: November 2023 Report

Commodity Market Report 08 December 2023

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Report summary

Europe energy prices provides a comprehensive outlook for fuels, carbon and power prices in Europe to 2050. Gas prices have softened in this view, but market tightness will persist until 2025 when a new wave of LNG supply hits the market. Substantial LNG supply growth between 2026 and 2029 rebalances the market, keeping prices low, before a rebound from 2030. With lower gas prices, weaker power demand in the short term, and renewable build-out accelerating, power prices are forecast to decrease to 2030. The cannibalization of renewable capture prices and associated curtailment risks worsen in the early 2030s, resulting in a moderation of capacity growth. However, as the 2030s progress, the growth of flexible resources (supply and demand-side) and rising carbon prices, will sustain price levels.