US crude exports: Making waves Report

Insight 06 March 2018

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Chief Economist Ed Rawle discusses the implications of the surge in US crude on global markets.

Report summary

Since the lifting of the crude export ban in late 2015, US crude exports have grown rapidly. In Q3 2017 they reached a high of 2.1 million b/d, and given the ramp up in US onshore crude production expected over the next five years, exports are forecast to approach 4 million b/d by the mid-2020s. This in-depth study examines the key questions raised by this tectonic shift in the global oil market. -How much of the ramp up in US crude will be consumed by US refiners, and how much will need to clear into the global market via export? -What markets are likely to see the most significant inflows of US tight oil crude? -What crudes will get displaced and what discounts will be required for US crudes to compete?

Why buy this report?

US exports have surged into the global market in recent years and key questions are being raised such as what level will US crude exports reach? What markets will take US crude? Is there sufficient infrastructure to support the flood of crude exports destined for the gulf coast?

Our report discusses these questions and provides context around the implications of increasing US volumes in the global market and will give greater detail into:

The trajectory of US crude production and how much will enter the global market
Understanding how US crudes will price in various export markets
The current state of export infrastructure, where more is needed and which hub will see the greatest export volumes

This study comes from our:

Product

North America Crude Markets Service

Forecast North American crude flows through all major pipelines, hubs and export terminals to support strategic planning, market analysis and valuation work.

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Charts

Historical US crude & condensate exports (kb/d) by destination
Major global crude exporting nations exports (kb/d)
Forecasted US Lower 48 crude and condensate production
Forecasted US crude production vs. crude demand (millions b/d)
Forecasted US consumption of domestic light sweet crude (kb/d)
Global oil demand growth (millions b/d) to 2023
Global refining CDU capacity additions (millions b/d) to 2023 by region
US crude and Bonny refinery gate values vs. Brent in European FCC configuration – Forecast
US crude and Bonny refinery gate values vs. Brent in European Coking configuration – Forecast
US crude and Bonny refinery gate values vs. Brent in Asian FCC configuration – Forecast
US crude and Bonny refinery gate values vs. Brent in Asian Coking configuration – Forecast
Bonny Light – WTI Houston spread at USGC ($/bbl)
Product yield difference in Midland Sweet vs. Bonny Light crude
Destination of US light crude and condensate exports
US condensate exports (kb/d)
Asian call on US condensate (kb/d)
Forecast export volumes of US tight oil crude streams (kb/d)
US tight oil crude stream forecast percentage of light crude exports
Forecast export volumes of US light crude by export hub (kb/d)
US light crude export hub market share %
All supporting data for these charts in an excel attachment