Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 26 September 2018

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Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The aluminium market continues to be buffeted by turbulence from trade disputes, tariffs and the Rusal sanctions. The outcomes from these will define the market over the next few years. The US-China trade war and US tariffs on aluminium has spooked investor sentiment, pushing the average quarterly LME price from $2258/t down to $2054/t so far in Q3. A tight market over the next few years on supply restraint from China and still decent global demand growth should support a steady increase in average annual prices over the next 3-4 years.

Executive summary
Demand
- Overview
  - Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2018
- Forecasts by region
  - Asia
  - China
  - Asia (ex-China)
    - Europe
  - North America
Supply
- Project Classification
- Summary
  - Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation
- Smelter production changes since Q2 2018 and forecasts
- Global smelter production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
- North America
  - North America aluminium production
- 18 more item(s)...
Supply-demand balances
- Aluminium market review and outlook