From Ban to Quotas? Impacts and outlook of DRC cobalt export scrutiny

The DRC banned cobalt exports for four months on 22 Feb 2025. The DRC supplies over 70% of the global cobalt. This incident highlights a concentrated outbreak of issues affecting the DRC's domestic mining economy and military security. Over the past four years, Over the past four years, investments led by Chinese companies have doubled cobalt production in the DRC, causing a reversal of market balance. This has driven down cobalt prices and affected the royalty income of the DRC. At the same time, the DRC does not have the capability to resolve the M23 movement in its eastern region on its own. Against this backdrop, the DRC hopes to emulate the Ukraine-US mineral-for-security agreement. On the one hand, it aims to introduce US military and diplomatic capabilities to address security issues; on the other hand, it seeks to bring in US capital to balance the influence of Chinese mining companies in the country.