Commodity Market Report
Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2018: Limited financing and sudden policy shifts create volatility
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Seaborne thermal coal prices buoyed by Chinese, Indian and SE Asian growth and push to electrify. Protectionist measures in China and inefficient Indian logistics tempered trade. Growing demand in developing countries outweighs an increasingly carbon constrained world, leading to a slight rise in long term seaborne demand. Global high grade supply remains tight while low grade coals sought alternate ports in light of 2018 Chinese import restrictions. Long term supply needed to meet demand but investors reluctant to fund projects.
Table of contents
- Phase I: A gradual return to marginal costs (2018 – 2023)
- Phase II: the first bounce (2024 – 2027)
- Phase III: risker projects required despite demand pressure (2028 – 2037)
- Phase IV: renewables risk weighs on prices (2038 – 2040)
-
Risked price ranges
- Global thermal coal demand continues to decline from its 2013 peak
- Seaborne demand is influenced by government policies in key Asian nations
- China
- India
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- Southeast Asia
- EMEARC and the Americas
- Variable import demand requires flexible supply: overcapacity is here to stay
- 2 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Phase I marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
- Phase II marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
- Phase III marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
- Phase IV marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
What's included
This report contains:
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