The big question for onshore wind: what to do with ageing turbines?

As the global onshore wind energy sector matures, the industry faces the challenge of how to manage ageing turbines as they reach the end of their operational lives. Our latest forecast for the market shows that 275 gigawatts (GW) of onshore wind power capacity will reach 20 years of operations between 2023 and 2033. This milestone raises the question: should ageing turbines be decommissioned, repowered, or undergo lifetime extension (LTE) work to gain additional years of productivity? 

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Lifetime extensions (LTE) 

Lifetime extensions on ageing turbines present a cost-effective solution for maximizing a turbine’s operational lifespan. By upgrading key components that are prone to age-related deterioration, operators can optimize the performance of their wind assets. This approach helps avoid the high costs associated with dismantling, disposal, and repowering. In the final years of a turbine’s design life, operators can then upgrade essential components such as blades, rotors, or drivetrains, which can add up to ten years to a turbine’s operational lifespan. 

Wood Mackenzie’s latest Global onshore wind end-of-life report includes the results of an LTE analysis on the global fleet of operational turbines (excluding China), in which we found the cumulative serviceable market for LTE solutions will increase from 33 GW in 2023 to 154 GW by 2033. This growing pool of serviceable LTE wind capacity is concentrated in the US and Europe, representing 49% and 44%, respectively, on average over the next ten years. The growth in LTE capacity is driven by several factors, such as high decommissioning and repowering costs, the high reliability of some legacy platforms and the rapid increase in turbines approaching end-of-life.  

Repowering 

Repowering a turbine by replacing an ageing platform with a newer, larger model is the most effective way an operator can increase the efficiency and output of their wind portfolio. This approach also improves turbine reliability, extends the turbine’s lifespan and reduces overall maintenance costs. The ageing global fleet is already attracting investment in repowering activity, with global cumulative repowering capacity forecasted to increase from just over 21 GW in 2023 to 134 GW by 2033.  

Annual global repowering capacity will increase from 4 GW in 2023 to just under 19 GW by 2033. While Europe and North America will continue to represent a large proportion of this capacity, China has already emerged as a leader in onshore wind repowering and will account for 60% of the annual repowered wind capacity on average from 2024 onwards. Outside of China, Europe and North America, persistently high re-development prices, low maintenance costs in some markets, and high dismantling and disposal expenses continue to discourage asset owners from repowering.  

Decommissioning 

The dismantling, removal and disposal of wind turbines and associated facilities, such as the substation and O&M facility, is a crucial part of a wind project’s lifecycle and needs to be carefully planned by the asset owner to ensure it is carried out safely and cost-effectively.  

Turbine decommissioning is expensive. However, the salvage value from the sale of turbine components for reuse and the recycling of scrap metal can offset the total decommissioning costs significantly. This offset can sometimes be as much as 60 to 70%, due to the rising value of scrap steel, cast iron, copper and aluminium.  

Additionally, there is a growing demand for spare parts for legacy platforms. The refurbishment and sale of key components from decommissioned wind projects is a growing business and will continue to benefit from year-on-year increases in repowering and decommissioning capacity over the next decade.  

Global cumulative decommissioning capacity is forecasted to increase from 16 GW in 2023 to 145 GW by 2033. Like repowering, this decommissioning capacity growth will be concentrated in China, Europe and North America, with established and emerging markets in Latin America, APeC and MEA focusing on upscaling their installed base of onshore wind capacity instead of turbine end-of-life solutions.  

While the wind decommissioning supply chain is quickly expanding to meet this growing demand, challenges remain around rising services and equipment costs, the regulatory environment, site restoration and the recycling of materials found in turbine blades. 

Recycling 

Most operational wind farms are 85 to 95% recyclable depending on the material composition, with newer models generally being more recyclable than older platforms. Many of the leading OEMs have committed to making their turbines 100% recyclable; however, it will take decades until the wind industry achieves a fully circular supply chain and innovations in blade recycling become widespread and cost-effective.  

26 megatons of turbine material will be decommissioned between 2023 and 2033, with 2.4 megatons being decommissioned per year on average. Of this 2.4 megatons, China will account for 59% of this weight on average per year over the next ten years, while Europe and North America will account for 25% and 13%, respectively. Of his 26 megatons of turbine material, just over 23 megatons have the potential to be recycled, based on ongoing improvements in blade recyclability and changes in turbine material compositions.  

A total of 254,000 turbine blades will be decommissioned between 2023 and 2033, and while many blades have historically ended up in landfill, technologies used to recycle fiberglass are improving and governments are becoming stricter on blade disposal.  

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