Oil and refined products in 2025: a commodity trader’s guide

In an energy hungry world beset by growing trade tensions and shifting energy policy, volatility creates opportunity for commodity traders who can stay one step ahead of market shifts. So, what are the opportunities and challenges set to shape crude and refined product markets as 2025 progresses? 

Fill in the form to download the full report, or read on for a preview of the key insights.

Global refined oil product demand: still growing outside Europe 

 Overall, oil demand will continue to grow through 2025, albeit at a slower rate than in 2024.In fact, Europe is the only region where we currently expect oil demand to decline in the short-term, although in a world of trade tariffs global demand growth could stall in 2026. China will account for the biggest proportion of growth, with demand increasing by 0.22 million barrels per day in 2025, rising to 0.28 million barrels per day in 2026, but this will primarily be petrochemical feedstocks. Elsewhere, demand growth will be more muted. 

Crude supply: still flowing freely 

In contrast to demand, crude oil supply growth shows no sign of abating. New non-OPEC supply is primarily from conventional projects, so supply growth is largely independent of oil price.  

Aside from projects in Norway and the US, the remaining key new developments due to come online in 2025 are in Latin America; there is a risk that some scheduled for H2 2025 could slip into next year. Meanwhile, US tight oil provides a flexible source of supply, projected to increase by around 340,000 barrels per day during 2025. Should US$50/bbl prices prevail for a sustained period, US tight oil supply would shift from growth to decline.  

Our Russian waterborne and VesselTracker services show that Russian oil exports continue to flow, with sanctioned vessels still accessing Chinese ports.

Read the full report

This report delivers key charts and insights on global oil demand and the ripple effects of U.S. policy on trade and crude tariffs

Fill in the form above to access your copy.